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Too small of a sample size to make any judgements. You've never HQ'd like 6 in a row on butters as well? This means very little.
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actually I've heard this happen to the upper end crafters like you, just not often....
/comfort
I remember I use to have an excellent crafting record for various items. For over a year I had only 1 failed Scorpion Harness synth.
Around the same time we had that massive gil bust, and the economy started going down, an unannounced change in the success rate of crafting showed face for all.
The change in success rate cost me over 30,000,000 G. My favorite aspect of the game did indeed turn to shit, so I put my account away last October. It's become very time consuming and frustrating to raise a measly 1,000,000.
My best guess is SquareEnix needs the game to be balanced for new comers, if the economy was suited for the rich players, the auction house prices will make it impossible for newbies to get their feet on the ground in short time, making FFXI extremely difficult to get into.
For the record i use to HQ Scorpion Harness 4 or 5 times a week. After the gil bust, 1/3 of my SH synths would break. sometimes 2/3, the following week.
This is no random change.
Around the same time we had that massive gil bust, and the economy started going down, an unannounced change in the success rate of crafting showed face for all.
The change in success rate cost me over 30,000,000 G. My favorite aspect of the game did indeed turn to shit, so I put my account away last October. It's become very time consuming and frustrating to raise a measly 1,000,000.
My best guess is SquareEnix needs the game to be balanced for new comers, if the economy was suited for the rich players, the auction house prices will make it impossible for newbies to get their feet on the ground in short time, making FFXI extremely difficult to get into.
For the record i use to HQ Scorpion Harness 4 or 5 times a week. After the gil bust, 1/3 of my SH synths would break. sometimes 2/3, the following week.
This is no random change.
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It's just a bad day. I'd feel happy were I you that it happened on Selbina Butter rather than something worthwhile. The odds of me going 1/36 on hq staves are extremely low, but it's happened before, and may happen again.
It's just part of the game...just as you 'could' lose 10 hands of blackjack in a row while playing the odds, sometimes things just don't go in your favor.
It's just part of the game...just as you 'could' lose 10 hands of blackjack in a row while playing the odds, sometimes things just don't go in your favor.
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Well idk...
the past 3 days I been breaking a lot more than usual. I was thinking it was a fluke and continued to synth only to lose 1.5 stacks off Darksteel ingots making chains, and 9 adaman ingots doing the same in semi-consecutive synths.
the past 3 days I been breaking a lot more than usual. I was thinking it was a fluke and continued to synth only to lose 1.5 stacks off Darksteel ingots making chains, and 9 adaman ingots doing the same in semi-consecutive synths.
A few days ago I was synthing 4 iron ingot stacks worth of Iron bullets (48 successful/critical shatters worth) - and at the end of the session I lost an entire stack of iron ingots to critical shatter. I know bullets being a syn that requires a subcraft has a higher break rate, but it made me kind of T_T.
Then I did 7 darksteel ingot synths and lost a darksteel ore.
I've kept track of just about every single synth I've ever done and I'm not seeing the week-to-week ratios or long run averages change. I attribute this stretch to bad luck. I also attribute the fact that I noticed this stretch because it's natural for the 'eye-ball' test to notice the negative swings a lot more. Putting it another way, when I synth together copper ingots or something and get 50 consecutive successful synths, I don't feel like I cheated the system. I just walk away with my ~4 stacks of copper ingots, not even realizing how lucky I got. Critical shatter one out of 7 times on darksteel ingot, which isn't even statistically relevant, and I start /cry. : )
~Tanshui
Then I did 7 darksteel ingot synths and lost a darksteel ore.
I've kept track of just about every single synth I've ever done and I'm not seeing the week-to-week ratios or long run averages change. I attribute this stretch to bad luck. I also attribute the fact that I noticed this stretch because it's natural for the 'eye-ball' test to notice the negative swings a lot more. Putting it another way, when I synth together copper ingots or something and get 50 consecutive successful synths, I don't feel like I cheated the system. I just walk away with my ~4 stacks of copper ingots, not even realizing how lucky I got. Critical shatter one out of 7 times on darksteel ingot, which isn't even statistically relevant, and I start /cry. : )
~Tanshui
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