Sinking of the Cheonan...

Raesvelg

Raesvelg

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For those who are out of the loop, the ROKS Cheonan, a South Korean naval corvette, was sunk on the 26th of March under suspicious circumstances.

An international body of analysts has officially decreed that far and away the most likely cause of the sinking was a North Korean torpedo.

More info can be found here.

South Korea is in a bit of a difficult situation at this point. This is a blatant escalation of current tensions between North and South, and they have to respond somehow, but as usual North Korea is threatening war if any action is taken.

So.

Go ahead and take action, assuming that the North is (as usual) bluffing? Take serious action, rather than just hollow sanctions on things you already weren't sending to North Korea?

Or let it slide with a token response, secure in the knowledge that lack of a decisive response will serve only to embolden the very people who created this crisis in the first place?
 
Turn Pyongyang into a parking lot.
 
Seoul is a hell of a lot closer to the DMZ than Pyongyang, unfortunately.
 
I'm no expert in war, but it looks like S.Korea is at a significant disadvantage tactically. They're actually cornered in that peninsula that both countries occupy, so if they do provoke N. Korea to declare war, they've got nowhere to go for their ground troops. On the other side of the matter, just doing nothing will invite another attack, and so too will a strong worded condemnation of N.Korea's actions (I find these completely retarded and wish political figures would stop making them).

Their best bet is probably to quietly seek assistance of another country (not necessarily just one) and to attack N. Korea preemptively (assuming their asking for help went unnoticed). It's either that or bend over voluntarily for an occasional ass rape ... which is a bit of a contradiction but you get the point.

Update: As I read this outside of the preview post thing, I find that what I suggest as the best course of action may be on the drastic side. However, if they simply sink a N.Korean ship in response, the way I see it one of two things will happen:

1) N. Korea declares war
2) N. Korea and S.Korea will continually exchange small attacks like the one mentioned in OP with no end in sight, other than a declaration of war.
 
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ShomeGhuye said:
I'm no expert in war, but it looks like S.Korea is at a significant disadvantage tactically. They're actually cornered in that peninsula that both countries occupy, so if they do provoke N. Korea to declare war, they've got nowhere to go for their ground troops. On the other side of the matter, just doing nothing will invite another attack, and so too will a strong worded condemnation of N.Korea's actions (I find these completely retarded and wish political figures would stop making them).

Their best bet is probably to quietly seek assistance of another country (not necessarily just one) and to attack N. Korea preemptively (assuming their asking for help went unnoticed). It's either that or bend over voluntarily for an occasional ass rape ... which is a bit of a contradiction but you get the point.

Update: As I read this outside of the preview post thing, I find that what I suggest as the best course of action may be on the drastic side. However, if they simply sink a N.Korean ship in response, the way I see it one of two things will happen:

1) N. Korea declares war
2) N. Korea and S.Korea will continually exchange small attacks like the one mentioned in OP with no end in sight, other than a declaration of war.
Click to expand...

South Korea has quite the advantage over North Korea. Once North Korean troops pass the DMZ and enter in to any of the modern cities still standing after the mass artillery fire from North Korea, they will stop - utterly shocked by the awe-inspiring sight that their disenfranchised kin aren't wallowing in poverty and disease like Glorious Leader says.

Their heads, as expected, would spontaneously explode as their brainwashing conflicts with the reality sitting before them.
 
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South Korea has been preparing for North Korean invasion for many years now--Starcraft. :P
 
great, now I have an image in my head of Kim Jong-Il yelling "ZERG RUSH" from the top of the Juche Tower (I'd have said Ryugyong Hotel, but we all know it's just a shell of a building anyway).
 
Jeez . . . I'm no expert on diplomacy, but wouldn't the sinking of a naval vessel pretty much make that 50+ year ceasefire null and void?
 
Reauland said:
Jeez . . . I'm no expert on diplomacy, but wouldn't the sinking of a naval vessel pretty much make that 50+ year ceasefire null and void?
Click to expand...

You would think. Maybe N.Korea denying any involvement in it plays a part in the ceasefire still being in effect. Or maybe it's being used as a tool to create propaganda in N.Korea to get the populace to think of S.Korea a certain way before invading (ex: These people lie and say we bombed their sub, they must be dishonest SOBs etc. etc. etc.)
 
I don't know how this will pan out. The sinking is definitely a legitimate casus belli, but the South Koreans regard their Northern cousins with a sort of atavistic dread. In an objective view, without heavy support from China, the South would basically kick the North's ass in any prolonged conflict. As long as they could withstand that initial push across the DMZ, at least. North Korea's military tech is decades out of date, their industrial base was never anything to write home about, and their economy is utter shit. About the only thing they have going for them is the sheer size of their army, and we saw how well that ultimately worked for Saddam Hussein.
 
Can't say I'm surprised...

Following quotes taken from here

Mounting tensions on the Korean Peninsula reached a new level Tuesday as a North Korean agency announced that the communist nation is severing all ties with its neighbor to the south and will "abrogate the agreement on non-aggression."
Click to expand...
The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, the group that is in charge of relations with South Korea, said in its statement Tuesday that it would consider South Korea's "smear campaign over the sinking of the warship as a declaration of a war."


It said the North would "mete out a merciless and strong punishment," KCNA reported.
Click to expand...
Anyone else think it's weird for a committee named "The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea" to be saying things like that?

Among the committee's recommendations:
-- That all relations be severed and inter-Korean issues be handled under wartime laws.
-- That dialog between North and South be halted during Lee's tenure.
-- That all communications between North and South be cut off.
-- That South Korean ships and airliners be banned from passing through North Korean territorial waters and airspace.
Click to expand...
 
Once again, China holds all the cards. If China turns its back on North Korea, then I wouldn't be surprised to see South Korea launch a pre-emptive strike. If, however, China decides to flex its political and economic muscle, then North Korea will be allowed to continue acting like a spoiled brat.
 
Eh, China's relationship with NK is overplayed and misinterpreted so often. They hardly hold all the cards either way. The biggest issue is that there will be massive civilian casualties in Seoul at the initiation of any war, I don't care how effective any strike is (preemptive isnt really correct, they've been attacked lol, although obviously get what you are saying). Plus actually going into NK will hardly be enjoyable and will likely turn into another insurgency war. It is pretty tough to choose a course of action. I mean at some point the appeasement has to stop...I mean this shit is an act of war, there is no way around that fact. Further sanctions are just going to lead to more civilian deaths in NK as well. They are obviously low on the priority list, but there are still millions of innocent (albeit probably brain washed) people in NK as well. There is also the fact that the economies of the developed world are dealing with enough problems as it is - adding another fucking war isn't exactly something we are looking forward to.
 
Zoolander said:
Eh, China's relationship with NK is overplayed and misinterpreted so often. They hardly hold all the cards either way. The biggest issue is that there will be massive civilian casualties in Seoul at the initiation of any war, I don't care how effective any strike is (preemptive isnt really correct, they've been attacked lol, although obviously get what you are saying). Plus actually going into NK will hardly be enjoyable and will likely turn into another insurgency war. It is pretty tough to choose a course of action. I mean at some point the appeasement has to stop...I mean this shit is an act of war, there is no way around that fact. Further sanctions are just going to lead to more civilian deaths in NK as well. They are obviously low on the priority list, but there are still millions of innocent (albeit probably brain washed) people in NK as well. There is also the fact that the economies of the developed world are dealing with enough problems as it is - adding another fucking war isn't exactly something we are looking forward to.
Click to expand...

China does hold all the cards in two ways, neither of which involve any kind of military support for North Korea. The first being their veto power on the U.N. Security Council. As the U.S. so brilliantly demonstrated with Iraq, unilateral action isn't generally very well received by the citizens of allied nations. I think allied support is even more crucial with military action against North Korea because the U.S. military is already stretched to the breaking point as it stands now. The second is their ability to severely injure the global economies of the West if they take the stance that any military action against North Korea will result in a shift in China's economic policies towards the West. Obviously, it is in China's best interests that North Korea not destabilize the region and put a strain on West-Chinese relations. However, China doesn't always act from a logical mindset. I do think that if South Korea decides to cross the DMZ first, so long as they can employ the same tactics that the U.S. used in the 1991 Gulf War, they will find a great deal more support from the down-trodden North Korean citizens than the U.S. currently find among the Afghans and Iraqis. After all, North and South Koreans don't have the same cultural barriers and long-standing hostility that the U.S. faces in the Middle East.
 
I just don't see China opposing any movement by the security council if more shit happens. I mean at the current status, no one is going to push for war, so obviously something else would have to happen first. Really just depends what the events are. I wouldn't even imagine in my wildest dreams the US would pursue this unilaterally, even China recently distanced themselves from NK. They just don't want millions of refugees trying to cross into China...they are pretty serious about protecting their borders. I mean there are 24 million people there. That is a fuck ton of people in a small area, any conflict would displace a ton of them. As far as the NK citizens, I would hope once the regime is overthrown they would eventually embrace SK and our forces, but it is pretty damn hard to know for sure what the people there really think and how brain washed they truly are. I mean yea they act kinda crazy from what we see, but it makes more sense that it is done out of fear than super effective brainwashing. Hard to know how they will react though. I'd really like to visit there tbh lol, seems like it would be a crazy experience.
 
Someone on an internet reply board to one of the many news articles on this compared the situation to that original Star Trek episode where the two nations waged perpetual clean and tolerable war by computers, with designated casualties reporting to disintegration chambers. War became so low key and tolerable that the two sides never really felt the urge to make real peace. That's the same thing that's going on with the two Koreas. What's best for both sides is to make war so devastating that they beg for peace. I believe this would be the best thing for the Middle East as well. Enough small skirmishes that don't really move people to action. We need war, lots of it - the kind of war with wasted life on a scale the likes that hasn't been seen since WWI, so that people remember why peace is a good idea.
 
Pompidou said:
Someone on an internet reply board to one of the many news articles on this compared the situation to that original Star Trek episode where the two nations waged perpetual clean and tolerable war by computers, with designated casualties reporting to disintegration chambers. War became so low key and tolerable that the two sides never really felt the urge to make real peace. That's the same thing that's going on with the two Koreas. What's best for both sides is to make war so devastating that they beg for peace. I believe this would be the best thing for the Middle East as well. Enough small skirmishes that don't really move people to action. We need war, lots of it - the kind of war with wasted life on a scale the likes that hasn't been seen since WWI, so that people remember why peace is a good idea.
Click to expand...

I hate to agree with this. I really do. But Pompidou has a point.
 
Well Europe is far and away the best example of that after WWII. The key to it all was the economic ties they all made with each other, which made it insane for any of them to fight. However, the case with Europe is the exception and hardly the rule. Devastating war happens all the time, and more often than not it does not force people into prolonged peace.
 
This is a very unfortunate situation for the South. It really is one of those "damned if you do, damned if you don't" sort of situations for South Korea.
 
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