Japan to shoot down possible N.Korean rocket

[Tymon]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7967202.stm

Article summary:

Spoiler:

Japan says it is deploying missile interceptors to destroy any parts of a North Korean rocket that might fall on its territory.
North Korea has said it will launch a satellite into orbit next month.
South Korea, Japan and the US say the launch is cover for a test of the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile.
The US said a launch would violate UN Security Council resolutions. Russia said North Korea should "abstain" from testing any missiles.
'Assure safety'
Japan's Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada issued the orders to mobilise Japan's missile defence shield after a meeting with Prime Minister Taro Aso and cabinet ministers.
"We will do our best to handle any flying object from North Korea in order to assure the Japanese people's safety and security," said Mr Hamada.

"A satellite or a missile - we are displeased with anything that is going to fly over our land, and such an action must be stopped."
It is the first time that constitutionally pacifist Japan has deployed the shield. The country's military is also expected to deploy warships off its coast.
North Korea says it intends to test-fire the rocket between the 4 and 8 April.
The trajectory issued by Pyongyang shows the rocket will pass over Japan, with the first booster stage landing in the sea to the west, the second in the Pacific Ocean to the east.
The interception is only likely to be activated if the launch does not go as planned and debris appears to be falling towards Japan.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin told journalists that the launch had led to increased tensions in the region, "and this is why it would be better if our partners in North Korea abstained from this".
Japan revised its Self-Defence Forces Law in 2005, legalising possible interceptions of ballistic missiles.
But the country's pacifist constitution does not allow it to intercept a missile if it is clearly heading elsewhere.
The Japanese government had previously warned it would try to shoot down any missile or debris that threatens to hit its territory.
North Korea has said it would regard any rocket intercept as an act of war.

Depending on how this goes, we may be in for one hell of a ride.


If they really do launch a rocket, for whatever reason, and it gets shot down, we're looking at a theoretical war between North Korea and Japan. That, obviously, involves NATO and inadvertently the US and EU because of the treaties involving military action with japan and all that jazz.

 

[Skaw]

Part of me hopes it happens. It's literally the only way to get something done about KJI since theres absolutely nothing worthwhile about North Korea as a country for an invasion and occupancy. Atleast, it'll be the only way before the country implodes on itself from mass starvation.

Another part doesn't because if it does, China is almost assuredly going to get in the mix on the side of North Korea.

 

[Dancingweapon]

No war plz.

 

[Tymon]

Hence, one hell of a ride.

We really have no idea what China is capable of militarily.

The way the economy is right now, a large scale conflict against China/N.Korea would be absolutely disasterous for the world--especially the american--economies.

 

[Raesvelg]

I'm increasingly of the opinion that a war over control of resources is almost inevitable in the next 50 or so years, given the current trends.

And while we do have a fair idea of what China is capable of militarily (and that is mostly under the umbrella of "providing extensive target practice") at the moment, there's a question as to how a full-on war would play out.

The fundamental paradigms of war have shifted again, and it seems like an awful lot of people aren't really aware of it. The machine gun, mobile warfare, "blitzkrieg", all of these things created changes. Precision munitions, satellite surveillance, and stealth technology combine to create a change bigger than anything than the nuclear bomb. There's a real question as to whether the traditional "Great Power War" would play out in the traditional fashion, that being whoever can produce the most wins. With the ability to strike with great precision and near impunity, against easily identified targets... Suffice to say that attacking an enemy's means of production has never been as feasible as it is now.

I think, when you get right down to it, that a full-scale conventional war between China and the US is a war that nobody could really win, mind you. There's little doubt in my mind that we could smash them flat, and destroy their ability to wage war, but there's equally little hope that we'd have a chance in hell of successfully occupying the country.

 

[Skaw]

You know, North Korea reminds me a lot of those little parasites that cling to the larger bullies in schools. The ones that play the tough big dog card, when everyone knows that without their friend, they're a measly, little, easily crushable, piss ant. If it wasn't for communism, China wouldn't even bother backing North Korea, as loosely as they do.

 

[Mirewen]

One of my University Prof's said the next world war will be over fresh water resources. I hope this doesn't escalate to a war... another war is something our economies don't need right now.

 

[Celvantes]

China won't get into a war with us.

A) Their economy depends on our economy. Without us buying their crap, they're in big trouble.

B) They own a *bunch* of our foreign debt. They have a lot of money invested in our capability to repay it. If we no longer exist to pay it, or withhold payment due to war, they're in big trouble again.

China my beat their chests and outwardly show their support for their little communist buddy N. Korea, but if it came down to it, I think China would have a closed doors session with lil' Kim and smack him around until he stopped creating problems.

A war with North Korea, without China's support, would not last very long. True, they've got a starving military revved and waiting to charge south of the DMZ, but in the end they're still poorly trained and poorly equipped. They'd have to worry about us, South Korea *and* Japan all showing up with technologically advanced forces ready work out fifty years' worth of tension.

 

[Rips]

China won't get into a war with us.

A) Their economy depends on our economy. Without us buying their crap, they're in big trouble.

B) They own a *bunch* of our foreign debt. They have a lot of money invested in our capability to repay it. If we no longer exist to pay it, or withhold payment due to war, they're in big trouble again.

China my beat their chests and outwardly show their support for their little communist buddy N. Korea, but if it came down to it, I think China would have a closed doors session with lil' Kim and smack him around until he stopped creating problems.

A war with North Korea, without China's support, would not last very long. True, they've got a starving military revved and waiting to charge south of the DMZ, but in the end they're still poorly trained and poorly equipped. They'd have to worry about us, South Korea *and* Japan all showing up with technologically advanced forces ready work out fifty years' worth of tension.

Your knowledge always puts my mind at ease.

 

[Dancingweapon]

phew thank god for that one.

 

[Celvantes]

Your knowledge always puts my mind at ease.

Then again, some nutjob could always seize power and decide to "fire ze meeesiles!"

We can hope that they'd make the rational choice, but you never know.

I wouldn't put it past Kim Jong Il to fire off a nuclear missile, if he ever gained that capability. The guy is nuts.

This is why we need ballistic missile defense systems... but the current administration is in the process of dismantling that program.



While N. Korea is a troubling situation, the *real* worry I have is Iran. I'm not worried so much that they would gain nuclear capability, rather, I'm worried that they'll get close. Israel already showed willingness to preemptively strike any Arab neighbor getting close to nuclear capability (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera).

If Iran gets close, I have no doubt Israel will level whatever facilities they can reach. The good news is that it'll prevent Iran from having nukes... the bad news is that it will start a war between Israel and every last one of its Arab neighbors. This is a war we would inevitably be drawn into, seeing as a very large chunk of Israeli citizens hold dual US citizenship and either have family here or were born here.

Would Israel win such a war? Yes, but at the cost of a lot of lives and potentially a nuclear exchange. Any kind of political volatility near the oil fields of Saudi Arabia will cause massive economic ripples around the world, and depending on how the global economy is doing at that point, the damage could be devastating.

People sometimes wonder what the big deal is with Iran having nuclear capability. THIS is why they can't.

 

[Rips]

People sometimes wonder what the big deal is with Iran having nuclear capability. THIS is why they can't.

Who are these people?!

 

[Novolo]

No war plz.

Very hard for there not to be a war, i have a bad feeling that war is going to come out of that area if not Iran

 

[Vandoura]

I think this is a possible WWIII if Russia, China, North Korea are fighting against Japan, US, and UK. Then again, i think it won't happan.

 

[Pompidou]

I don't think China would ruin its economy by getting on bad terms with the US. They buy all our debt, and it's only worth something on the virtue that it'll be repaid someday. Russia's not the big deal it used to be. Neither would risk their skin over North Korea. It's not the cold war anymore, and nobody has a philosophic interest in spreading a particular government. I don't think even China has an interest in Lenin style communist expansion. China only cares about China, and I think that's a good thing, really. There won't be a WWIII, and it won't be over the nutcase Kim Jong Il. The US isn't going to invade China, and China isn't going to invade the US. No other country is worth worrying about. I'm not worried. If the whole Middle East erupts into religious violence and bloodshed, most of the world would sigh and say, "Business as usual." Senseless violence in the Middle East and Africa aren't WWIII material. It's hardly news material.