First of all, I asked you a question. Specifically, to provide objective evidence as to what you've based your "three year plan" conclusion on. Logically, this would be some kind of a statement or referenced document issued by a current/former NFL scout, GM, owner, etc. I didn't insult you, but that's okay because I've probably forgotten more about football than you'll ever know.
You obviously don't watch enough football to know thats usually when most draft picks really start to get used more because of contracts expiring and players aging. Football you is usually draft for the future not the now.
Wrong. Major League Baseball drafts "for the future" as you put it. The typical 1st-3rd round MLB draft pick spends at least 3 if not 4 seasons developing in the minor leagues. This is why MLB drafts are so erratic when it comes to their long-term payoff. A team may draft a pitcher in the first round because they need a prospective #1 or #2 starter 3 or 4 years down the road. However, 3 or 4 years down the road they may have already developed said starter and they are willing to trade away that 1st round prospect for a veteran free agent that will help them win right now.
Football and the NBA, on the other hand, draft for immediate needs. You don't draft a QB or a RB in the first round, who are going to earn something called GUARANTEED MONEY (this means they get paid regardless if they ever step onto the field), to sit on the bench for 2 or more years. You want that first or second round pick to be ready to play by the second season at the absolute latest. Nowadays it's more commonly expected for a first or second round pick to contribute right away because the terminology shouldn't be as foreign to them as it once was since the majority of Division I colleges are running pro-style offenses and defenses.
Actually Carson Palmer is a perfect example for this
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396173 third year his break out year where the Bengals made a play off push.
I don't know if I should bring up Phillip Rivers or not. He got his first starting season last year, but played behind Drew Brees. He supports contracts running out though. So...
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/493041. Of course these are above average young talented players.
Chad Johnson:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235222 2nd year over 1,000 yards but 3rd year over 1000 yards AND 10 TDs.
Jamal Jewis:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/187391 4th year in the league but 3rd of actually playing.
Drew Brees:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235197 4th year playing break out year.
Brett Favre: His 3rd year of starting
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1028
Just a few players thrown out there.
Now I will ask you another question. What are you determining the success/failure of your "three year plan" upon? Is it individual production or is it leading a team to regular playoff appearances or is it leading a team to Super Bowl appearances/victories within three seasons?
Really the only one out of those three that Michael Vick doesn't fit into is the Super Bowl appearances/victories. In 2002 he led the Falcons to the playoffs and in 2004 helped get them to the NFC title game (4th season in the league by the way). Therefore, you must be judging a player on individual stats? Well barring the 2003 season where Vick only played in 5 games, and the 2001 season (rookie) where he only played in 8 games (2 as a starter) he's had some pretty good numbers.
2006 Led QBs with 1000+ rushing yards and finished about 170 yards behind your boy McNabb in passing yards.
2005 Led QBs with about 600 rushing yards and finished less than 100 yards behind your boy McNabb in passing yards.
2004 Led QBs with 900 rushing yards and had about 2300 yards passing (~1500 yards less than a T.O. McNabb and the year PHL beat ATL in NFC title game)
Hmmm...well that doesn't do the trick so it must be a combination of stats AND team success right? I can come up with a list of 1st round draft picks that took more than 3 years to come into their own as NFL stars by the above criteria as well:
Troy Aikman
Jim Kelly
John Elway
Steve Young
Terry Bradshaw
Warren Moon
Nothing special about those guys...Just all Hall of Famers.
This is one other factor that is seriously flawed with your "three year plan," and that's the fact that the OVERWHELMING majority of first round draft picks have average careers AT BEST. Just go back and look at all the first round drafts since 1982 and see the ratio of stars/mediocre. It's gonna be about 10% or less. The fact of the matter is, it's a crapshoot and there are too many uncontrollable variables for you say with any certainty how a player is going to develop within three years.
Wanna try again? We can play this game all day.