Oh North Korea, you scamp you...

[Raesvelg]

Since someone wanted a post made about this and was too lazy to do it themselves, I figured I'd get the ball rolling on this one.

Again.

Anyway.

The problem with talking about North Korea is that it's really hard to tell what they want. I mean, they pull shit like this all the time. Not quite to this scale in terms of casualties and blatant aggression, but the fact of the matter is that they've got quite a history of creating incidents that are right on the verge of a casus belli in order to push people, foreign or domestic, into doing what they want.

Which, of course, leads me back to my perennial point of not paying the danegeld, but I reckon you're all fairly tired of hearing that by now.

So, in all likelihood, we're looking at another iteration of the usual mess. North Korea does something outrageous, threatens war, and either quells internal dissent by way of the predictable negative international response, or gets something they need by way of the predictable Chamberlain-esque appeasement from the more wishy-washy members of the international community.

Which sadly can include any of us, depending on the intestinal fortitude of our elected officials. /sigh.

Of course, there are a handful of other possibilities. On the one hand, the military might be trying to destabilize the government and stage a coup. Or they could be trying to provoke a more significant response in order to stage a... Potemkin Incident, for lack of a better way to describe it. Poke the South with a stick enough times, get them to launch something significant, seed the area with an appropriate amount of apparent civilian casualties, cry foul, get concessions, etc.

Or they could be batshit insane and think that they could provoke a war that they could win. Since, despite the apparently disparity in the quantity of military hardware and personnel at their disposal, South Korea alone has a sufficient quantity of men and material that is qualitatively better (to the point of being almost a repeat of the first Gulf War) to make sure that any war North Korea instigates, South Korea can finish without any external assistance.

And they would have external assistance. We're still a bit bogged down in the Middle East, of course, and we're predictably in the middle of a draw-down that will probably leave us short-handed the next time we have a couple regional conflicts to intervene in, but like I said, South Korea wouldn't need much in the way of assistance. It'd be, for lack of a better word, gravy.

Of course, in a caveat on the aforementioned "Provoke a War" scenario, it's possible that they have concerns over the viability of their nuclear weapon delivery systems, and figure that international response would be a lot more limited if, when the South Koreans push across the DMZ, they were to set off a nuclear landmine in their own territory.

"Hey, we're not the aggressors here! Sure, we used a nuke, but it was on our own land! It's like a test! With... live subjects..."

And I guess we could be looking at a "Mouse that Roared" variation of the "Provoke a War" scenario. This would be another military coup situation, but less insane and more cunning than the "win the war" concept. Start the war. Lose. Get occupied and rebuilt by the people who just finished kicking your ass.

The weird thing is that, in some ways, I can see the appeal for this scenario as a way of saving North Korea from Kim Jong-il & Sons without... losing face. You don't actually have to stage a full-on coup, of course. Just have a handful of officers willing to die for the plan when they make the order to poke-with-stick.

Poke enough times, you get your war, you lose your war like you know you're going to, new government gets installed, military command is probably safe if they've not been actively participating in some sort of war crimes, North Korea becomes part of Korea, massive international investment ensues, profit. Or at least not worry about your populace starving to death for the greater glory of the Kims. All of that without ever being branded as some sort of traitor in the public eye.

 

[ShomeGhuye]

Honestly they remind me of my younger brother many years back. If he felt he wasn't getting enough attention, he'd do something to piss me off, I'd punch or push him, he'd start crying even if the punch/push was dainty, and I'd get in trouble because he said I did it first.

To this day he still blames crap he did on me ...

Anyway as an alternative to your batshit insane theory, I suggest that maybe they're testing the waters, seeing what kind of international reaction they get when they torpedo a battleship or bombard an island for an hour with artillery. The goal being to measure their chances of success if they did decide to declare war.

 

[Raesvelg]

It's possible that they're trying to see if the international community will take a side in the war, but yeah, that still falls under the "Batshit Insane" side of the equation. North Korea could probably hurt South Korea pretty bad with a surprise attack, but win the war? No way in hell.

 

[Dejavu]

North Korea : China :: Israel : US

North Korea has 2 countries they consider to cause all of their problems, the US and South Korea. Now if a war between SK and NK happens we almost certainly come to the aid of SK (even though they don't need it) and if we get involved China will almost have to come to their aid. At this point we are at a defacto war with our #2 banker who can quite literally call in all of the T bills they have and cause a complete currency meltdown in this country. With China already warning us about devaluing our dollar NK could be attempting to be the straw that broke the camels back to get us in a direct conflict with China since they have the have a severe advantage if we did go to war at the moment.

Oh and what i mean by my analogy is that like China we should probably evaluate our relationship with a country we are unable to control but support unquestionably.

 

[Raesvelg]

For China, crashing the US economy is... possible, but extremely unlikely. It's one of those "Hey, we trashed you in the international market! And... we... trashed the international market. Which includes us. Hmm..." situations.

 

[Dejavu]

well you have got to look at it from the question of if the world does melt who is in the best position to recover and become the powerhouse. In this country we dont produce hardly anything, we have a horrendous debt and our people as a whole have little to no physical assets. China on the other hand is a manufacturing giant, and they have long been encouraging their citizens to buy precious metals and other physical assets. The only thing this country has going for it is our ability to produce food.

 

[Strid]

It's in no way China's best interest to mess us over. When you invest heavily in something, like they have our country, it's in your best interest that whatever you invested in/on succeeds. China, in order to reap the benefits on their investment needs America to succeed, period (they aren't without debt and need for us all the same we are for them, probably even more so). I'd like to think they are also smart enough to know that if they aid North Korea they are joinin' a side that will loose, there is no way that I can think of them pulling off even a small victory on any scale, economically or militarily. The only thing I could see China doing is trying to save face with North Korea by acting like a bulldog until it comes time to act, and then tell them they are on their own. China needs to appease North Korea because they are easily within striking range, if they went to war with their South and the U.S. went as well, the fear is over, North Korea will fall and China is safe on both issues, with them and us after an apology at most, which will probably be unnecessary itself.

However, I think all of this is just another ploy for concessions.If they actually do have balls to back their mouths up this time, I just hope that the situation in the Middle East has taught the U.S. government why going back on lessons of history is not smart at all (I'm lookin' at you Spanish American war, more precisely our invasion of the Philippines).

 

[Hexx]

Besides, if China joined, could the USA impose sanctions or something which would make said monetary investments pretty much null and void for China? As much clout as they think they have, I doubt they would try to swing it around in the case of a NK vs SK war........

 

[Raesvelg]

There's a funny thing about debt.

You don't have to pay it back.

Especially not if there's nobody who can make you do it. Which is rather the situation that China and the US are in. Sure, they could call in their marker.

We can tell them to go fuck themselves.

Yes, it will ravage our economic system, in the short term at least. But it will also ravage their economic system if we don't pay. Yes, they have more manufacturing than we do, but we have a fair amount, and we have the infrastructure for so much more. There are a handful of ways that the US could survive the economic fallout, and in some ways emerge stronger than before, assuming that everything is done exactly right.

It's a symbiotic relationship we have with China right now, and to be honest, it's one that I would desperately like to see us out of. Much like I would like to see us completely energy-independent, and with our own core of manufacturing for every necessary war material

Just so we could, at any time, tell the rest of the world to go fuck itself.

 

[Lukas]

Quit living in Raestopia! Yes, if the US did X and Y, and had a complete cultural overhaul they could brush off China. But as it currently stands the Chinese are a few notches before you in the production line. And they're cheaper. If it all comes crashing down, don't bank on your friends because everyone will go where the money is.

On-topic: Can we stop with the wars already? Here's an idea: Let South Korea deal with South Korea's problems. Funny how rare hindsight is - let's revisit a few old memories. Remember when South Vietnam was being bulllied by those evil communists in the North and everyone remembered they didn't like communists so they decided to pretend that some North Vietnamese shot at their boats in the Gulf of Tonkin which led to a declaration of war and a long as fuck stretch of guerilla combat in the jungle which the US forces were horribly unequipped for. And then everyone realised that people were dying over there on the other side of the world for no real reason so they didn't like the idea of war anymore only it was too late to get the hell out so they kind of stuck around for a bit and then withdrew but managed to somehow tell history that victory was achieved when hey... those communists are still there and the sky hasn't fallen.

Remember when a handful of people flew a plane into a building and everyone decided that scary plane flying people were everywhere but mainly in this one country on the other side of the world which everyone had ironically sold weapons to years earlier to help them fight other scary people of a different colour. So war was declared on that country, only then it was obvious that all the plane flying people were hanging out in the country next door with all the oil, and one could only have assumed that they had big evil weapons of some description because that's what evil people have. So everyone moved there instead and buckled down for a long as fuck stretch of desert fighting involving many deaths culminating in no weapons being found which brought everyone to the conclusion that they were over there dying for no particular reason only it was too late to call quitsies so they have kind of been stuck there until the present time even though it's so so certain that victory will be achieved very soon even though hey... where's Osama Bin Laden?

And do you recall that one time when North Korea was being all mean to South Korea to get some attention and everyone remembered that they didn't like North Korea?

 

[Raesvelg]

Quit living in Raestopia! Yes, if the US did X and Y, and had a complete cultural overhaul they could brush off China. But as it currently stands the Chinese are a few notches before you in the production line. And they're cheaper. If it all comes crashing down, don't bank on your friends because everyone will go where the money is.

It's not a matter of living in Raestopia, it's a matter of complex and interconnected financial systems, of which the United States forms a very significant part. If the Chinese decide that they're going to try to bring us down financially, they'll drag themselves right down with us. It's part of the reason that they don't rattle the economic saber any harder than they do now.

And yeah, everyone will go where the money is. The only problem will be, where will that money be? Chances are, it'll be India rather than China that emerges on top if the Chinese decide to try a little financial warfare.

 

[Romper]

I love how Kim Jong Il is rolling over ALL of us. He's like HAHA SUCK IT I DO WHAT I WANT! and all we can manage to do is show force and run tests. Really? Why didn't we "accidentally" launch ICBMs at them when they had their million man military march? Wipe them out and say it was a test that malfunctioned due to faulty guiding?

 

[Strid]

I love how Kim Jong Il is rolling over ALL of us. He's like HAHA SUCK IT I DO WHAT I WANT!

And all the while he's got on a nice, brand new pair of Michael Jordan's from the early 90's and watching some fuckin' Scarface.

 

[Dancingweapon]

He likes James Bond also. England stand up!

 

[ShomeGhuye]

He's like HAHA SUCK IT I DO WHAT I WANT!

Immediately made me think of this:

 

[Lukas]

 

[Lucki]

I love how Kim Jong Il is rolling over ALL of us. He's like HAHA SUCK IT I DO WHAT I WANT! and all we can manage to do is show force and run tests. Really? Why didn't we "accidentally" launch ICBMs at them when they had their million man military march? Wipe them out and say it was a test that malfunctioned due to faulty guiding?

of electronic components made in China! It's brilliant! Blame the launch on NK's ally!

 

[Romper]

Oh more artillery fire from N. Korea while S. Korea and the US have war games out at sea. We're so frightening with our war games!

 

[Pompidou]

China's only interest in North Korea as an ally is a buffer to keep US military bases off its border. Why not take our military forces out of South Korea, after we let China conquer North Korea? China's safe. They might be powerful, but they're rational. It won't be a war with a mutual superpower that brings down the world. It'll be all those mosquitos like North Korea and Iran. Little-man inferiority complexes and nuclear weapons don't mix. So yeah, we should encourage the powers that we don't necessarily see eye to eye with, but can work with on a professional level to take care of the little unpredictable guys we can't. North Korea and Iran aren't jobs for the United Nations, and I wouldn't be opposed to China and Russia getting new territory if we had greater world security in return. Somebody besides the US has to start conquering these people. It's for everyone's good.