Thoughts on Deflation

[buckeyespud]

We all know about the Christmas inflation last year, blah blah blah. There were a number of theorys out there, including the NPC item sell back trick that some people though produced a huge amount of gil in the server. Now that that is fixed, couple with the gil nuke that SE performed, we have seen prices drop on all NM drops, crafts, and just about everything. My question is, while this new deflation was nice at first, is there anyone else out there that is wondering when and where it will end?

I don't think that we are going to see a price jump again this Christmas. There was an interested thead last week on Alla about how gil is leaving the server faster than it is being created. I thought the thread had a lot of good points. I was looking through item histories on ffxiah.com this morning and noticed that not only is everything dropping in price, but things are being sold at a much lower rate as well. Is this recent deflation leading to a depression on the server.

My theory is if you already have hundreds of millions of gil from before...good. But if you are an up and comer like myself trying to carve a niche for himself, it is becoming harder and harder to do so.

Probably am just kicking a dead horse here, but I'm new to this website, and would like to see my fellow Quetzy's players opinions out there.

 

[Legomyeggo]

I give it one to two months before prices go apeshit again.

 

[K. Ishitar]

I give it one to two months before prices go apeshit again.

yep the rmt need time to rebuild their chars you know the same ones which were kicked out on their original chars they give good competition and less stuff comes in and demand rises so I think it depends on the rmt really and their "strength" in levels by majority

 

[Zaltana]

many players are banking on a new xmas inflation boom like last year. deflation is good for me cause lvling crafts is cheaper then it has been in awhile. and as any of my fellow smithers will agree, our craft aint cheap.

im just gonna ride this thing as long as i can and hope i can keep up when it ends.

 

[crookedmidget]

I've seen the deflation, and am fortunate enough to have gil in pocket which is increasing in value as the prices drop.

I've seen many things come down, but there are somethings that are falling much slower than others. If you happen to find these items, this is where you want to concentrate your farming, since you'll get a bigger bang for your buck. We're all getting a little less for our items these days, but then again, we can also get a SH+1 for about 5.7mil..

 

[neophytal]

a good bit of deflation on some items is because of the availability of newer and equally good (or even sometimes better), newer items that have come out.. that are even easier to obtain.....

or... just they made things drop in more places...

 

[buckeyespud]

Missing the point

These are all good responses but the key point we are missing, and the reason why I think we will not see a price jack, is even if the RMT are attempting to restock their gil stocks, how are they going to do so if even they are selling stuff for less and/or their stuff is not selling? Gil is not created out of thin air. There are basically only a few ways new gil is created. Quests, Missions, Beastman drops, Selling items to NPC. Those are the 4 basic ways. I can go off on the number of ways gil is lost on the game. Dynamis, AH tax, Outpost warps, Chocobo renting, purchasing equipment/items from NPC's, that coupled with the normal gil loss from crafting, purchasing food, ammo, turning in stuff to guilds for points. If you were to put on a scale the amount of gil coming in to the game and leaving the game on a daily basis, I think the scale tips to the more gil is leaving the game than coming in.
So with that said, RMT may be saving up the gil for a Christmas sale, but they are going to have or should have less gil to play with than before.

 

[Shady]

So with that said, RMT may be saving up the gil for a Christmas sale, but they are going to have or should have less gil to play with than before.

I dunno 'bout all that.. these guys have been here for years, I'm sure they have a nice size stash saved up in case of a recession

 

[tauromachine]

Gil is not created out of thin air.

Wasn't there an exploit RMT were using to do just that a while back? I don't remember the details exactly, but maybe someone else does.

 

[chrono fantasy]

Gil sellers sell the gil to those that get Christmas cash and wish to spend it to buy gil, then Gil sellers sell all these high-priced items for a lot more, and those who bought gil will buy them at almost any price just to have it and just because they bought the gil, they can afford it.

There might be an inflation around Christmas, maybe not as much as last year, but unless SE is smart and plans to ban a lot of RMT accounts around then so we don't have to worry about inflation.

 

[buckeyespud]

Wasn't there an exploit RMT were using to do just that a while back? I don't remember the details exactly, but maybe someone else does.

Yes, this is why the inflation was so bad last year, there was an NPC in Tavnazian Safehold that sold an item for 1 price, and bought the same item back for a lot more than the selling price, so basically there were gil buyers huddled around this NPC that for all day long would just buy up 60 of said item and sell it right back, basically creating gil out of nothing. When SE caught wind of this, they took all the servers down for emergency maintenance and fixed the issue.

Now that this has been fixed, and there have not been new cash creating mistakes, I think this is why we will not have inflation.

 

[Kire]

Wasn't there an exploit RMT were using to do just that a while back? I don't remember the details exactly, but maybe someone else does.

Talking about the old software had some gill coins and some $ on it and where able to change the digits of your gill up or down? It got fixed like 1 day after was found out lol.

 

[Skaw]

Yes, this is why the inflation was so bad last year, there was an NPC in Tavnazian Safehold that sold an item for 1 price, and bought the same item back for a lot more than the selling price, so basically there were gil buyers huddled around this NPC that for all day long would just buy up 60 of said item and sell it right back, basically creating gil out of nothing. When SE caught wind of this, they took all the servers down for emergency maintenance and fixed the issue.

Now that this has been fixed, and there have not been new cash creating mistakes, I think this is why we will not have inflation.

Haha, Rusty Caps without the middleman.

 

[tauromachine]

Talking about the old software had some gill coins and some $ on it and where able to change the digits of your gill up or down? It got fixed like 1 day after was found out lol.

Yeah, that was the one. Good to see it didn't last and it happened on a day I was actually paying attention.

 

[Kire]

Yeah, that was the one. Good to see it didn't last and it happened on a day I was actually paying attention.

yeah got it some where on PC but its lost in all my FFXI files (thanks mai for all your ffxi pics -_-)

 

[K. Ishitar]

Talking about the old software had some gill coins and some $ on it and where able to change the digits of your gill up or down? It got fixed like 1 day after was found out lol.

This makes me think of something else that supposedly was true Zeo told our ls once that one of the members from BlessedDeternity had found some kind of sequence to getting a very specific amount of gil(and somewhat large) by simply tapping macro buttons in a certain order... was like 2,777,843ish mil each time or something like that

but then again this was quite awhile ago anyone hear about that a long time ago?

 

[Kire]

This makes me think of something else that supposedly was true Zeo told our ls once that one of the members from BlessedDeternity had found some kind of sequence to getting a very specific amount of gil(and somewhat large) by simply tapping macro buttons in a certain order... was like 2,777,843ish mil each time or something like that

but then again this was quite awhile ago anyone hear about that a long time ago?

nope T.T only know of one working that plays with server side but fixed now

 

[Lavi]

These are all good responses but the key point we are missing, and the reason why I think we will not see a price jack, is even if the RMT are attempting to restock their gil stocks, how are they going to do so if even they are selling stuff for less and/or their stuff is not selling? Gil is not created out of thin air. There are basically only a few ways new gil is created. Quests, Missions, Beastman drops, Selling items to NPC. Those are the 4 basic ways. I can go off on the number of ways gil is lost on the game. Dynamis, AH tax, Outpost warps, Chocobo renting, purchasing equipment/items from NPC's, that coupled with the normal gil loss from crafting, purchasing food, ammo, turning in stuff to guilds for points. If you were to put on a scale the amount of gil coming in to the game and leaving the game on a daily basis, I think the scale tips to the more gil is leaving the game than coming in.
So with that said, RMT may be saving up the gil for a Christmas sale, but they are going to have or should have less gil to play with than before.

Gil isn't lost in those methods, items are and would cause inflation, not deflation. And actually, I am not so sure more gil is leaving the system than being introduced. A lot of the players have a majority of the items they desire and a lot of items are being replaced by similar albeit lower stat items which are very common thus cheaper to purchase. For example, the peti (the 5acc/att body piece) versus the SH. To me, the reason it seems prices are dropping is because of the huge lack of demand. All the players are saving their gil for high end purchases. The only items I've noticed which still haven't dropped in price much or at all are the high end, rare items such as NM drops and high level HQ synths.

 

[xRiokox]

One of the items that kept its same price for a long time when all this deflation started, was the O kote, back when Pyoih and Vebreaubent were still in the server, now that they are gone O kote dropped price in just a few days Amazing. Unfortunately, that botter and gilseller Dedracent is still there in Oztroja but he'll have to adapt to the price now that it's dropping...

This deflation may have been good at the start but I wonder if it will be any good if it keeps going... stuff that people used to camp or farm for example have dropped price too. What are the possibilities/probabilities of a coming inflation on Xmas or any other time soon?

 

[Mandarb]

First of all, selling random drops from mobs (Rabbit Hides, Crystals, etc.), to an NPC, creates new gil albeit a small amount.

Second of all, theres going to be a large Gil Buying spree this Christmas, for sure, but the difference this time, is that SE is going to be cracking down harder on the people who buy and sell it. Seeing a ton of gil being transferred between characters (and large amounts, or multiple smaller amounts), is going to obviously alert SE, and they'll start on a banning spree. Could be a ton of people disappearing here soon. >.>

What SE needs to do, is start blocking IPs from connecting to their servers (IP Ban, yay), to keep these damn RMTs from repopping everytime they get banned. Rebuying the game, restarting the characters (doesn't take long -_-), is not a huge deal, when you're making a ton of money.