Nyrona said:
it asks for two things.
1. who would guess correctly.
2. why they would guess it correctly.
he, in fact, got those both right, then stated the wrong color.
not included:
3. what would he guess?
I think it will help to establish some procedural rules.
Either we are going exactly by what was stated, or we go by what's implied.
Consider you have a friend named Billybobjoe. Jimwaynebob asks you, "Hey, you got Billybobjoe's phone number?". What is that question asking for? In the strictest sense it is asking whether you have the number, not what the number is. Most all of the time Jimwaynebob actually wants to know what the number is.
Be that as it may, let's look at the original post.
Note how jail cell #1 was described as having one suspect, and jail cell #2 as housing the other three? Critical thinking and the powers of deduction would lead one to believe that the original poster was counting from left to right.
Let's further assume in order to get a 100% correct answer one had to only name which suspect, and explain why that suspect would be the one.
Given the above, the right answer for which suspect would be #3, not #2 as Thnikkaman stated. Thnikkaman was counting from the right (I still don't understand why), while the problem had already established that the count goes from the left.
Let's look at Thinkkaman's original answer (I numbered the lines):
Thinkkaman said:
L1 It's the second guy.
L2 Why?
L3 After a short time, Number 1 has not shouted out what colour hat he is wearing.
L4 Because of this number 2 knows that he cannot be wearing the same colour hat as the person in front of him.
L5 If he was then number 1 would see two black hats and would therefore know that his hat must be white.
L6 He isn't wearing the same colour hat as the man in front.
L7 The man in front is wearing a black hat.
L8 number two can confidently shout out that the hat he is wearing is white.
L1 - wrong, it's the third guy based on the counting system established by the problem, correct if you count from the right
L3 - wrong, it's #4 who can't shout, based on the counting system established by the problem, correct if you count from the right
L4 - wrong, #2 is facing the wall, correct if you count from the right
L5 - wrong, #1 is facing the wall, also wrong if you count from the right, the correct statement if counting from the right would have been "then number 1 would see two white hats"
L6 - wrong, #2 is facing the wall, correct if you count from the right
L7 - wrong, there is no case in which #2 would see someone in front of him wear a black hat, no matter from which side you start the count
L8 - wrong, if counting from the left then #2 can not make any statements about his hat color (other than guessing), also wrong if counting from the right, as #2's hat would be black.
I wouldn't want to put a percentage on this, but even with wanting to see the things that are right, I don't see a 99.8% correct answer, and I most certainly do not see a 100% correct answer.
Completely disregarding the suspect naming their hat color, do you honestly believe that the explanation given by Thnikkaman is worth full credit?
Poll's never tell the truth, they are opinions by definition.