Treasure Hunter

[Uzor]

So, yeah. I'm going to start an experiment with Treasure Hunter, as there are many theories floating around. Some people still believe the THF have to get the killing blow for it to kick in, while other swear it works as long as the THF is in the alliance.

Personalloy, I believe, from observation etc, that TH kicks in as long as the THF is in the party. This would explain many things, like why people swear it only works when THF gets the killing blow (as the THF, naturally, is in its own party), aswell as people swearing it works when the THF is only in the alliance (as the THF's party might get the killing blow).

So, in an attempt to verify which is true (and possibly, get some more info out of it at a later date), I will start an experiment with Dynamis, and would like some more help from the rest of the Dynamis LS's. Mainly the leaders, or atleast the person gathering information from the runs.

From what I've noticed, mobs can drop anything from 0 to 4 coins. They almost always drops 2 coins for us, but there's always the occasional 0. And while observing it closer, by watching who kills and what's in their party, mobs seem to drop 2 coins when there's a /THF or THF in the party, 3 when the party have TH2 in it, and 4 when the killing party have TH3 in it. Usually 0 or 1 coin when the party have neither.

So, in an attempt to increase efficiency, I'd like to study this to see if its true. That way, it would be possible to parse entire runs, see which people kills the most mobs, and gather them together and put highest possible TH in their party, thus increasing drop rates.

Easiest way to do this would be to look at the drops, write down who killed it, and see what TH they have available in the party.

Anyone interrested in doing this? Might be able to pull some more info out of the results later, and might be possible to bring it further at a later date to see the difference between the different levels of treasure hunter.

If all Dynamis LS's worked together, we'd quite fast get rather decent results in drop rates from the different mob types (last boss, normal mobs, stones, NM's) With 25 runs per week, and let's say 100 mobs killed per run, that's 2500 tests per week. Which means we quite fast could get decent, reliable results.

The way I'm guessing it works, is that each mob type has a certain number of drops on its "loot list". Let's say normal quadavs have 4 coins on theirs. If drop rate is 50% per coin ((1)/(2) per coin) without TH, that makes it on average 2 coin drops per mob.
With TH1, that makes it:
(1+1)/(2+1)=2/3 drop rate, or roughly 0.66(66%) per coin, putting it at an average of 0.66+0.66+0.66+0.66=2,66 coins average per mob with TH1.

TH2 makes it (1+2)/(2+2)=3/4, or roughly 0.75(75%) per coin, putting it at an average of 3 coins average per mob.

TH3 makes it (1+3)/(2+3)=4/5, or roughly 0.8(80%) per coin, putting it at an average of 3.2 coins average per mob.

TH4 makes it (1+4)/(2+4)=5/6, or roughly 0.83(83%) per coin, putting it at an average of 3.32 coins average per mob.

This would explain what people say is a huge increase from TH1 (16% in this case), but decreasing efficiency in higher levels of it. This has already been tested by other people and holds true. And as you can see, my simplified theory on how TH works holds true in that case aswell, as you can see a huge decrease per "tier" in it.
TH1: 16%
TH2: 25% (9% increase over TH1)
TH3: 30% (5% increase over TH2)
TH4: 33% (3% increase over TH3)

The problem is that it would not work for things with far more rare drops. Let's take something that drops 1/20 times.

TH0: 1/20 = 0.05 (5%)
TH1: 2/21 = 0.095 (9.5%)
TH2: 3/22 = 0.14 (14%)
TH3: 4/23 = 0.17 (17%)
TH4: 5/24 = 0.21 (21%)

Thus increasing the drop roughly 5% to roughly 20%, which I'd say is a far too large increase, meaning it probably doesn't work with such small numbers, its probably more like 100/2000, and increases both numbers by X%, as we all know SE's formulas are not that simple.

Either way, this is the reason I'd like to perform the test, so we can get good numbers to work with and thus try to figure it out. I'm sure we have people who are skilled in math who can take some free time to try and figure out a pattern.

Also, sorry if my numbers are somewhat wrong. Its 7AM here <.<;

On another note, if people are willing to participate, this is what I'd like people to take a note of:

Who killed the mob, what level of TH they have in the party (TH does NOT stack), what kind of mob it was (as stated earlier i nthe post), what it dropped and how much, and also if it was pre-win or after win. Doing this, we should be able to prove many things, like what type of mob drops the most AF (if NM's have increased chance of dropping AF), and also the old rumour of "Mobs drop more after the win".

Offcourse, this test does not include moon phase, as it would make it far too complicated, but I figured that after long enough time, we should have been through a couple of moon phases, thus making moon phase and day not matter (assuming it DOES matter).

 

[K. Ishitar]

Just a comment of my own about TH.

It just seems for some reason that who ever is the thf or subs thf has a better chance of getting stuff while farming without lots. I noticed this when me and my drk friend were farming she had gotten most of the cuttings without lotting as a drk/thf where i was a rdm/bst.

When i subbed th as rdm/thf i got about half of the lots without lotting with my whm friend subbing blm.

And no neither passed anything.

Just my 2 cents though

 

[Bustaballs]

SE has already said THF doesn't have to get finishing blow. They've already said TH continues stacking and a THF merely needs to be in the party for it to work. It was in a 1up interview a while back.

 

[Peregrine]

Unfortunately TH does not increase the number of possible items that can drop. The maximum seems to be 4 coins, but a manaburning team can get 4 as well.

Dynamis would be an interesting place to test TH out, but mechanics in dynamis might be really screwed up since it's a free-for-all. Results may not translate into the real world.

Talk to dave though. He might be crazy enough to add this to his mountain of data.

 

[Uzor]

SE has already said THF doesn't have to get finishing blow. They've already said TH continues stacking and a THF merely needs to be in the party for it to work. It was in a 1up interview a while back.

Yes, the interview stated THF does not need to get the killing blow, but yet, people believe they do. Its a myth that's hard to dispel. And the interview did not quote the answer, they simply stated that a THF needs to bein the party, but did not mention anything about being in the alliance, so that still can't be dispelled. We also do not know if Dynamis works different, as all mobs appear "claimed" when anyone engage them. My reason to believing TH only works when the party kills the mob, is because Gilfinder only works within the party.

Unfortunately TH does not increase the number of possible items that can drop. The maximum seems to be 4 coins, but a manaburning team can get 4 as well.

Dynamis would be an interesting place to test TH out, but mechanics in dynamis might be really screwed up since it's a free-for-all. Results may not translate into the real world.

Talk to dave though. He might be crazy enough to add this to his mountain of data.

Read my edit, added some stuff in. But I can mention it here too, I believe each mob have a "loot table" with everything it can possibly drop, and included in that loot table are 4 instances of coins, thus making TH roll for each one of them, and thus "increasing" the number of coins that drop.

 

[Peregrine]

Your proposed hypothesis seems to assume that one TH4 thief is all you need for max output, and you even claimed that TH doesn't stack in the edit. That would, of course, be incorrect. It is a fact that TH stacks. If I took my five Invictus thieves with TH4+3+3+2+2 out to hunt anything, it would blow one TH4 and 4 friends away. Kindred seals come to mind. The last time we got together to jerk around the things dropped like colibri feathers. A mere TH6 pair of thieves was enough to land 6 straight testimonies in Oz while key hunting. Anecdotal, sure, but SE said it stacks. I've seen things combined that I could never do alone with TH4. It surely stacks.

Any other opinion is mere millionaire's desk wishful thinking of those who don't too much care for thieves. In essence, the false belief makes people feel good about only having one thief in the group. There is an anti-thief sentiment among old endgamers because a lot of them have been bent over by thieves while growing up, namely in xp parties. Unfortunately for them they're only hurting themselves, and a simple challenge pitting TH10 versus TH4 would easily prove that it's not that TH doesn't stack. It's that people don't want it to be true because they don't like thieves, and while one elitist thief that they consider "one of us" is tolerable to them, the thought of actually recruiting and acknowledging thieves as anything more subconsciously disgusts them.

Again, I can pretty quickly prove that one little thief with Th4 is nothing compared to me, zyl, and war. Give me a moon phase to start, a drop target, and a sample size and party size. We can probably compare TH10 to Th4 and get that out of the way.

Minor soap box on endgamers' bias against thieves and how that generates superstitions to console the biased. Moving on.

Uncertainties:
1. Does the thief have to engage the mob? Be within range of xp?
2. Does it work if the thief isn't in the "red-mob" kill party?
3. Are TH and TH2 the same traits?
4. Does it affect different types of drops differently?
5. By what percentages does TH increase drop rates?
6. By what mechanism does TH+ equipment work?
7. In zones with different fight mechanics like Dynamis, do TH mechanics apply?
8. Do other members additionally contribute to drop rate or DILUTE it?

Nobody knows those answers. I would hypothesize that by whatever mechanism TH works, it has to work both for parties, alliances, and in free-for-all zones like dynamis. As such I think TH is more liberal than most have given it credit for. But again, no data, poor data, difficult to test. As it stands, unfortunately TH is too weak to overcome bias against those who bring it to the table. It's unfortunate that TH is so underrated by endgamers, but hey. I'll take my dagger WTFDMGboosts on the side and not complain.

It is a noble effort, but invic can't collect data geared-toward the flawed principle that TH doesn't stack. The stem is flawed, so the data would likely be uselessly confounded.

 

[hellstorm]

2. Does it work if the thief isn't in the "red-mob" kill party?

I think he trying to debug this statment. From what ive seen a thf in the red or killing party seem to get a better % of hq drops then if the blm party or dot kill it. this being th3 thief being in mele party with sam,mnk,and war. What i man by Hq they whold get kirin odose or crim legs instead of kirin pole or sharu body(mnk).

 

[Peregrine]

I think it's all mindgames myself. The one constant in the history of TH is misconception and subjective bias in the face of an effect that honestly does not appear to be objectively perceptable by human players. Personally, I think TH is modified based on how active thieves are in the fight, which explains the manaburn phenom of poor drop rates. I think a thief who swings 30 times sees more TH output than one who swings once. But that's my own personal bias speaking more than objective observation.

If true, that would mean endgamers have wasted 4 years on futile cheapshots that did very little, which would reinforce to the pop that TH isn't that good and doesn't stack--a mere self-fulfilled prophecy because they tried to make use of TH without making use of the thief.

 

[Myrrh]

What if one day Se just gives up and says "HAHAHHA You morons, i can't believe you spent all that time and energy into getting TH+ items and yet TH does nothing at all AHAHAHAHAHAHA"

 

[Marajade]

What if one day Se just gives up and says "HAHAHHA You morons, i can't believe you spent all that time and energy into getting TH+ items and yet TH does nothing at all AHAHAHAHAHAHA"

thats my current theory on TH.

 

[Elemmire]

I'll ask Cythe or all of lolDynamis even if they'll keep an eye out on this for ya.. but I don't play anymore soo hehe can't promise anything

 

[Uzor]

Pere, what I said was not that you need only one TH4 THF and you'll get good drops. what I said was that you need one TH4 for EACH PARTY, not for Dynamis.

And TH doesn't stack within the party. On a more interresting note, how exactly do you manage to get TH6 and TH10? Or are you just making it up again?

And btw, DynamisManaburn do get very good drops inside Dynamis. They try to put a TH3 or TH4 THF in every BLM party, and they always put one with the people who kill the most. Their average AF drop rate the cities is 14, with 20+ being the most they ever got. How is that "shitty drop rate"? One of the reasons for their high drop rates is 'cause they pretty much wipe out the entire zone, the second is because they try to have a THF in every party.

 

[Rorion]

TH is like sex: You think it will be amazing, but you'll only end up dissapointed.

 

[Blabj]

What if one day Se just gives up and says "HAHAHHA You morons, i can't believe you spent all that time and energy into getting TH+ items and yet TH does nothing at all AHAHAHAHAHAHA"

TH is like sex: You think it will be amazing, but you'll only end up dissapointed.

Sad but true

 

[Kotsu]

Ahem... Correction:

TH is like sex with Kotsu: You think it will be amazing, but you'll only end up dissapointed. It also is over very quickly.

That seems more accurate, from what I hear.

 

[Windy]

What if one day Se just gives up and says "HAHAHHA You morons, i can't believe you spent all that time and energy into getting TH+ items and yet TH does nothing at all AHAHAHAHAHAHA"

That's what I am thinking.. TH has such a low noticeability I am wondering if SE added to simply to make people like Thf more.

 

[Legomyeggo]

That's what I am thinking.. TH has such a low noticeability I am wondering if SE added to simply to make people like Thf more.

Or, you know, things might have a percent chance and items might not always drop.

 

[Grem]

I think TH is mostly a placebo effect.

 

[Legomyeggo]

I think TH is mostly a placebo effect.

I think your FACE is mostly a placebo effect!

 

[Lavi]

From my understanding, dynamis works slightly different than most other drops. Each person has their own chance of getting a single drop; however, their respective drops all add up. The drop rates are really low and each person has an equal chance of getting a coin. Same goes for relic as well, but relic is slightly different in that it has a much lower drop rate and only one can be dropped per mob versus the four coins that can be dropped at once.

Say you have 5 people in dynamis and they kill a single mob.
Person A: 5% drop rate. Doesn't get drop.
Person B: 5% drop rate. Doesn't get drop.
Person C: 5% drop rate. Does get drop. 1 Coin.
Person D: 3% drop rate. Doesn't get drop.
Person E: 3% drop rate. Doesn't get drop.

It works so that once a single coin has been dropped, the rate for getting the next coin has been significantly decreased. Had there been TH of some sort, the value would increase (unsure if it increases everyone's percentage or just the thief's). Relic drops work in the same fashion, but only one can drop max although I don't believe it takes the place of a coin. Now the thing about TH+1 items is that in dynamis, it is simply amazing. From what I have heard, it increases drop rates only by a small amount which is believed to be 1%. When you farm for items, silk off crawlers, beehive chips off bees, tree cuttings off goobue, etc., the drop rate is actually fairly good in comparison to NM drops so the increase is rather insigificant, but in dynamis, the drop rate on relic is really low. The added +1% for TH3 or +2% for TH4, is huge when put into relationship with the low drop rate of relic. It's like a 1-2% drop rate to begin with and increasing it by 1-2% can significantly make a difference. From what I believe, having more people inside dynamis is better and not just from a killing efficiency standpoint. Each person has a seperate drop rate and having more should increase drops as well as speed/number of mobs killed.

Now there is something to be said about your test. Your test is worthless outside dynamis. NMs all work differently, their drop rates included. Certain NMs will drop only 1 item max, others will give 4 random items every time and then there are others which will drop 0-2 or possibly more items. Take Mee Deggi and Quu Domi for instance. They have a 100% drop rate on items; you either get the money item or a cheap 5k weapon, never both. Then there is a NM like Valkurm Emperor who drops Empress Hairpin and/or an insect wing. Neither drop is guaranteed and they are both seperate with no effect on the other. Lastly, there are other NMs like Centurio #### (forget the roman numerals, drops Shaman Cloak). He usually drops a lot of items. I think each time I have killed him, he drops 4 items guaranteed (maybe 3 and a crystal?), one of which is the SHaman's cloak. The point is, everything in this game doesn't function the same way on drops inside or outside of dynamis. Most normal mobs have a similar if not exact the same drop mechanisms, but each NM is very different. I would suspect that even my observations are off and there are more methods to their madness than the ones I have stated. I've even heard some NMs will only drop if you can kill it fast enough which seems to be the case. Popped the NM several times and each time it died in under 60 seconds, it dropped. Some things can be taken as superstition, but I wouldn't take everything to be such. SE has played a lot with the drop mechanisms to make NM hunting very different in each case and considering the many different NMs and their spawn mechanisms, I would guess their drop mechanisms would be just as different too.

Note: All mobs can drop crystals; however, crystals are a seperate item and do not function based on any sort of TH factor (excluding the aketons) and work similar to coins in dynamis.